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Myanmar's pro-democracy activists are weakened and on the run, but still believe people power can overthrow the military regime.
Detained Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has met a government negotiator four times since protests were violently crushed in September.
But in an interview this month, the most senior Myanmese democracy leader to escape arrest so far called the UN-backed process a sham.
He is the acting leader of the “88 Generation” group made up of people who led the demonstrations in 1988, when 3,000 demonstrators were killed by the military.
The talks between Ms Suu Kyi and the government were brokered by the UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari after the junta crushed the protests, killing at least 31 people and arresting hundreds in night-time raids. [**]
“It seems like a trap set by the government to buy some time from the international community,” 'Phoenix' said. “Mr Gambari is trying to come again, but I don't expect much of what he can do.”
Phoenix said he welcomed international pressure on the regime, but cautioned that it was not the solution. “The answer lies within us, within the country. The problem is not that the government is strong, but the opposite—we are not strong enough.”
Yangon is a city gripped by fear. After the crackdown, locals try to avoid a foreigner's eye. No one wanted to get into a conversation.
There are informers everywhere. Each neighbourhood has a government office with photographs of every resident, and where guests must be registered. “Even inside their families, people cannot talk loud,” Phoenix said.
The first protest by monks took place in the northwestern town of Sittwe at the end of August. Nearby, in a candlelit, windowless room, The Post recently met the leader of the Sittwe monks. Many of his followers have been dispersed by the clampdown and he shifts location on an almost daily basis to avoid arrest.
“I am planning to try again to organise a demo. Wherever I go, I talk to my people,” he said. “Whether it is possible or impossible to beat this government I don't know, but we must try. We will try very soon.”
Outwardly at least, 'Phoenix' is more optimistic. “We have to take time to prepare for a big show sometime in the future,” he said. “It may be six months or in a year or two.”
“With our movement, when it gets stronger and stronger, even some of the top leaders may co-operate with us. We have some reliable information, some of the top government leaders are not very happy with what the police have done to the monks.”
But in a Yangon tea shop one of the many thousands of ordinary people who marched through the streets in September took a less sanguine view. “Our government are killers,” he said. “The people are afraid again and they won't protest. They know they can't make a difference. They know they can pay with their life.”
* The article's title as it appeared in the South China Morning Post was "Activists believe people power is still strong enough to topple junta"
** Roughly 5,000 are thought to have been arrested, while the death toll is likely to run into hundreds. The thirty-one deaths are only those which are substantiated, which is often impossible in the circumstances. As at Depayin in 2003, unknown dead and injured alike were taken away by the military authorities and cremated, thus disappearing without trace.